Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 0.116040 0.130958 0.147083 0.165814 0.186979 0.210164 0.237500
2025-12-21 0.091237 0.110555 0.132974 0.160933 0.194903 0.234884 0.285584
2025-12-28 0.076548 0.098925 0.126621 0.163468 0.211293 0.271395 0.352872
2026-01-04 0.063176 0.086669 0.117537 0.161153 0.221363 0.301812 0.417916
2026-01-11 0.053617 0.077784 0.111365 0.161574 0.235024 0.339000 0.498206
2026-01-18 0.046521 0.071122 0.107150 0.163961 0.251740 0.382970 0.595490
2026-01-25 0.038547 0.061873 0.097745 0.157185 0.253838 0.405902 0.665447
2026-02-01 0.031840 0.053490 0.088345 0.148851 0.252074 0.422469 0.728091
2026-02-08 0.027098 0.047528 0.081870 0.144176 0.255421 0.447639 0.809078
2026-02-15 0.023096 0.042186 0.075610 0.138828 0.256670 0.469283 0.887401
2026-02-22 0.020871 0.039637 0.073806 0.141080 0.271799 0.517703 1.022733
2026-03-01 0.018098 0.035645 0.068790 0.136547 0.273442 0.541275 1.114286
2026-03-08 0.015890 0.032475 0.064990 0.134052 0.279230 0.574865 1.234309
2026-03-15 0.014002 0.029654 0.061461 0.131564 0.284698 0.608855 1.361803
2026-03-22 0.012906 0.028299 0.060697 0.134729 0.302646 0.671859 1.564271
2026-03-29 0.011579 0.026244 0.058158 0.133642 0.311111 0.715768 1.731846
2026-04-05 0.010578 0.024758 0.056634 0.134600 0.324434 0.772898 1.941695
2026-04-12 0.009796 0.023654 0.055802 0.137045 0.341715 0.842228 2.194996
2026-04-19 0.008614 0.021418 0.052011 0.131731 0.339104 0.862995 2.328345
2026-04-26 0.007505 0.019191 0.047916 0.125002 0.331796 0.870822 2.429143
2026-05-03 0.006696 0.017598 0.045151 0.121258 0.331690 0.897330 2.586640
2026-05-10 0.005955 0.016069 0.042323 0.116895 0.329199 0.917105 2.729124
2026-05-17 0.005583 0.015472 0.041842 0.118877 0.344747 0.989275 3.040074